Termine

Abstract: The desirable gambles framework offers the most comprehensive foundations for the theory of lower previsions, which in turn affords the most general account of imprecise probabilities.  Nevertheless, for all its generality,  the theory of lower previsions rests on the notion of linear utility.  This commitment to linearity is clearest in the coherence axioms for sets of desirable gambles.  This talk sketches two routes to relaxing this commitment.  The first preserves the additive structure of the desirable gambles framework and the machinery for coherent inference but detaches the interpretation of desirability from the multiplicative scale invariance axiom.  The second strays from the additive combination axiom to accommodate repeated gambles that return rewards by a non-stationary processes that is not necessarily additive.  Unlike the first approach, which is a conservative amendment to the desirable gambles framework, the second is a radical departure.  Nevertheless, common to both is a method for transforming rewards called discounted utility. [Poster]